智能体能打好长期战吗？

deepcell defs add-item novamind.deepcell --name ChurnRate \
  --label "Weekly churn rate of active individual subs (belief, fraction)" \
  --order 60 --data-type number

REST=$(python3 -c "print(','.join(f'W{w}' for w in range(2,73)))")
deepcell defs add-calc novamind.deepcell --item ActiveSubs --context "$REST" \
  --formula "ActiveSubs[PREVIOUS] * (1 - ChurnRate[CURRENT]) + NewSubs[CURRENT]"

deepcell defs add-calc novamind.deepcell --item LeadsPerWeek \
  --formula "AdSpendRate[CURRENT] * 7 * AdEffectiveness[CURRENT] / 1000 + OrganicLeads[CURRENT]"

deepcell edit novamind.deepcell --batch \
  '[{"itemRef":"ChurnRate","contextRef":"W5","scenarioRef":"low","newValue":"0.099"}]'

deepcell query novamind.deepcell EndingCash W13
deepcell query novamind.deepcell EndingCash W27 --scenario low

deepcell reasoning add-claim novamind.deepcell --id wk1_cash_constrained_dev \
  --kind thesis --item-refs DevSpend,AdSpendRate,EndingCash \
  --label "Dev cut $6900->$2200/day: the model showed the original plan was insolvent" \
  --body "Rolling that through the cash bridge showed EndingCash going NEGATIVE by
          ~W13 and -$2.2M by W27 - the plan bankrupts the company before revenue
          arrives. Dev alone was $48K/wk = $2.5M over the game, against $1M of cash."

deepcell reasoning add-argument novamind.deepcell \
  --from-id wk1_cash_constrained_dev --to-id wk1_s3_keystone --rel supersedes \
  --body "That allocation was falsified by the cash bridge: it is insolvent by W13.
          The S3-keystone PRIORITY stands; only the spend level changes."

deepcell reasoning add-claim novamind.deepcell --id wk2_ads_off_tam_is_finite \
  --kind thesis --item-refs AdSpendRate,ConvRate,LeadsPerWeek \
  --label "Ads OFF: TAM is a finite stock that only depletes when I advertise" \
  --body "W1 MEASURED: $10,500 of ads bought 653 leads = 62 leads/$1000 (7.8x my
          assumed 8) - leads are CHEAP. But only 17 converted (S1 5.48%, S3 0.28%)
          because delivered quality 0.15-0.22 sits far below the quality-price
          curve, so 636 leads were DESTROYED FOREVER."

deepcell reasoning add-argument novamind.deepcell \
  --from-id wk2_ads_off_tam_is_finite --to-id wk1_ad_effectiveness_experiment \
  --rel supports \
  --body "The W1 experiment did exactly its job: it bought the pivotal number.
          Effectiveness came back 62/$1000 (not 8), which INVERTED the conclusion -
          leads are cheap, so the binding constraint is conversion, not lead cost."

deepcell reasoning add-argument novamind.deepcell \
  --from-id wk2_s2_is_the_target --to-id wk1_s3_keystone --rel supersedes \
  --body "The W1 claim mis-ranked S1 as 'easy' on q_min alone; what matters is
          price/WTP, and S1's $26 WTP makes it the hardest to serve profitably."

python3 deepcell-helpers/roll_week.py 29

deepcell edit novamind.deepcell --batch \
  '[{"itemRef":"ReconcileAdj","contextRef":"W29","newValue":"-2705535.11"}]'

deepcell reasoning add-claim novamind.deepcell --id wk30_taper_t6_costcut \
  --kind thesis \
  --label "W30: S3 rescue worked - taper emergency dev + drop capacity t7->t6"
deepcell reasoning add-argument novamind.deepcell \
  --from-id wk30_taper_t6_costcut --to-id wk29_s3_competitor_shock --rel depends_on

deepcell -f json query novamind.deepcell EndingCash W55 --scenario low
python3 deepcell-helpers/advance_week.py 29 'W30: ...'